As appreciation pressure,
which developed in late 2004, subsided,
the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate gradually
drifted back towards the linked rate of
$7.80 in the early part of the year. The
exchange rate stayed close to the linked
rate in the first four months of 2005,
with the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking
being triggered occasionally, prompting
the HKMA to buy 12 billion of Hong Kong
dollars. The Hong Kong dollar exchange
rate started to strengthen in late April,
due to market expectations on a reform
of the renminbi exchange rate regime.
To make the interest
rate and exchange rate adjustments more
efficient, the HKMA announced three refinements
to the operation of the Linked Exchange
Rate System on May 18 aimed at removing
uncertainty about the strong-side potential
of the Hong Kong dollar. The initial response
of the foreign exchange and money markets
suggested that the three refinements were
effective. On the announcement of the
new measures, market expectations on Hong
Kong dollar appreciation diminished and
the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking
of $7.80 was triggered on May 18, prompting
the HKMA to buy 3.12 billion Hong Kong
dollars from banks. On July 21, when the
People's Bank of China announced a reform
of the renminbi exchange rate regime,
the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate reacted
calmly, suggesting that the three refinements
were effective in anchoring exchange rate
expectations on the strong side.
Hong Kong dollar interbank
interest rates rose sharply during the
year, owing to tightened interbank liquidity
following intermittent activation of the
weak-side Convertibility Undertaking in
the early part of the year, the introduction
of the three refinements to the Linked
Exchange Rate System in May, and increases
in the US federal funds target rate throughout
the year. For the year as a whole, one-month
interbank interest rates rose by 3.91
percentage points to close the year at
4.06 per cent. Following a cumulative
hike of 2 percentage points in the US
federal funds target rate during the year,
the best lending rate quoted by major
banks in Hong Kong was raised to 7.75
per cent. The average of saving deposit
rates quoted by major banks increased
to 2.32 per cent.
The yields on Exchange
Fund paper largely followed those on US
Treasuries, with those of the seven-year
and 10-year Notes closing the year at
4.15 and 4.18 per cent respectively. Yields
on Exchange Fund paper increased across
different maturities. The negative yield
differentials between the Exchange Fund
Notes and US Treasuries narrowed markedly
during the year, to -21 basis points and
-19 basis points for seven-year and 10-year
paper respectively.
The overall exchange
value of the Hong Kong dollar, as measured
by the trade-weighted Effective Exchange
Rate Index (EERI), was mostly influenced
by the exchange rate of the US dollar
vis-a-vis other major currencies. Reflecting
a rebound in the US dollar against other
major currencies, the EERI increased from
96 at the end of 2004 to 98.4 at the end
of 2005.
Hong Kong dollar narrow
money (HK$M1) decreased by 15.6 per cent,
while broad money (HK$M3) expanded by
5.7 per cent along with robust economic
growth in 2005. The divergence in growth
of HK$M1 and HK$M3 partly reflected a
shift away from liquid monetary assets
to term deposits. Specifically, the share
of liquid deposits (i.e. demand and savings
deposits) in total Hong Kong dollar deposits
declined from a high of around 65 per
cent in early 2005 to about 45 per cent
at end-December, probably brought about
by a rise in deposit rates.
Following a 6.3 per
cent increase in 2004, loans for use in
Hong Kong expanded by 7.8 per cent in
2005, reflecting increased demand for
credit. Analysed by major usage, lending
grew in most sectors in 2005. Trade financing
and loans to finance the manufacturing
sector, and property development and investment
registered notable increases. The outstanding
stock of residential mortgage loans increased
slightly in 2005, due to an expansion
in new mortgage lending activities. As
the rate of increase in Hong Kong dollar
loans was higher than that in Hong Kong
dollar deposits, the Hong Kong dollar
loan-to-deposit ratio rose from 82.6 per
cent at the end of 2004 to 84.3 per cent
at the end of 2005. |